Will Kamala Win PA?
A dispatch from our PA-on-the-ground correspondent, Jo Piazza
Today we have a very special episode of the EYP newsletter. Die-hard Pensylvanian, my podcast co-host & author Jo Piazza has been out door knocking and talking to folks and she’s bringing us a special dispatch from the ground, below. But first,
of the Substack WANT commented on my Saturday newsletter (with data-driven talking points fo convincing someone to vote Harris) and made such a powerful point:What’s really interesting to me is that so much of “how to talk to undecided voters in your life” advice mirrors common advice about how to talk to loved ones when they’re in an unhealthy relationship, or a toxic work environment, or in a place of general life dissatisfaction. RARELY does bashing a person, place, or circumstance help people ACTUALLY move forward and make choices that feel empowering to them. And rarely does it convince them of anything. What does? Listening, validating very real fears/frustrations, sharing relevant facts and observations, and allowing the person to make choices for themselves. I feel like this might be worth mentioning, because it was a lightbulb moment for me: if talking to someone in your life who is an undecided voter feels scary or uncomfortable, it might not be entirely because politics feels scary or uncomfortable. It might be, to Lily’s point, that you’re out of practice when it comes to Big Conversations. This, to me, actually feels somewhat encouraging. If I’m out of practice, the only way I can become proficient is to practice. It becomes less about ME and my own personal strengths/weaknesses (cue the negative-self talk of “I'm too scared, I’m not helpful, etc”), and more about simply lack of repetition and habit. It reframes it from “something I’m bad at” to “something I’m working on.” So maybe we can work on it together. And what better time than now?
And she’s right. Rarely does bashing the person, the circumstance, or the politics actually help someone move forward or feel empowered. Whether it’s a friend stuck in a bad relationship or a voter undecided about a candidate, the real way to create change is through listening, validating their fears, and offering the facts without pressure.
I know that many people are feeling negatively about the *waves around.* The nazi-inspired event held at Madison Square Garden last night certainly didn't help anything. The news is relentless, and maybe you’re carrying personal challenges on top of it. I hear from many of you that you feel like you don’t have the right words or right actions to make a difference. But I truly mean it when I say that simply showing up for tough conversations, even if it feels like a small thing, is actually a big contribution.
You may say “I’m not the type of person that has political conversations” —but that is a belief about yourself, not a fact. And merely by having one conversation, you can prove to yourself it’s not true.
This belief that “I’m just not that type of person” is something we often tell ourselves to avoid the discomfort of trying something new. We’ve all been there. But just like any other self-limiting belief, it starts to lose its grip the moment you take that first step. Imagine the feeling of walking away from a conversation where you listened, shared your perspective, and made someone else feel heard. That’s proof that you are the kind of person who can talk about big things.
And you also might find that the people you talk to don’t need much convincing to vote for Harris, but what they do need is help coming up with a plan to vote. I recently helped a family member register for the first time and I’m going to keep texting them with updated information on how to vote early. People need you to text them the link, they aren’t going to google it themselves! And democrats win when people show up to vote.
OK, now let’s look at the numbers:
It is likely that whichever candidate wins PA’s 19 electoral votes will win the Presidency. Polling is showing the race is an even heat, it will be won on razor thin margins. It’s the most-visited state for both candidates: as of the 26th, Harris has visited PA 13 times, nearly twice as much as her next most-visited state (Michigan, 7). Trump has gone to PA 11 times. Over $100 million has been spent on political ads for the Presidential race in the state.
The question I have been asked the most this week: Can Kamala Harris win Pennsylvania?
There’s a reason that Bruce Springsteen did a concert alongside Barack Obama in Philly. And why Kevin Bacon and Adam Brody were canvassing in Bucks County over the weekend.
I’m here for that one. If I were an undecided voter and Hot Rabbi and Ren McCormack (Bacon’s Footloose character for you youngsters) came knocking on my door I might just be swayed.
An Emerson College poll from October 21-22 had Trump slightly ahead at 49% to Harris's 48% in PA, with 3% undecided.Polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's tracker show the race essentially tied, with leads of less than half a percentage point for either candidate.
When you disaggregate by demographics, some differences show: a recent poll showed Trump leading among voters without a college degree (50% to 45%), while Harris led among degree holders (57% to 37%)
Every degree of Kevin Bacon matters here people.
So can she pull it off?
Our PA correspondent on the ground, Jo Piazza (author of the novel Charlotte Walsh Likes to Win which is also about a woman trying to win an election in PA), has been criss crossing the state for months and every time I text her about whether or not she’s optimistic she responds with an exploding head emoji.
I asked her what she was seeing: