We’re Losing the House. Here’s What it Means

And how we fight back

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It’s all but certain that we will lose the House of Representatives. This means that every single branch of government is under Donald Trump and MAGA’s control. The Presidency. The Senate. The House. And the Supreme Court.  This is an unprecedented moment in American history that will radically reshape our government.

Republicans currently hold a slight lead, with 205 seats projected compared to 191 for Democrats.A majority of 218 seats is needed for a party to gain control of the House.

The seats that the Dems need to win include a group of “red to blue” seats (ie: ones we were trying to flip.)  Given the country-wide move to the right, and currently reported numbers this seems unlikely. 

I’m getting a lot of questions about what this means? Has this happened before? Is it hopeless? Is there any sort of system of checks and balances on this administration now? I want to answer all of them.

We can’t trust the mainstream media or legacy liberal organizations or sitting democratic politicians to fight this. Joe Rogan and Elon Musk and Candace Owens and their billionaire backers are out there using the power of social media to build a political movement based on lies and hate.  But outrage bait doesn’t win elections. Tiktok dances don’t win elections. Celebrity endorsements don’t win elections.  We need social media that informs and inspires strategic change. And we need messaging that works.  We must band together if we’re to have any kind of future, find joy, find community, and find a way to take this country back.

And we are going to do that here in the EYP substack. 

If you are a free subscriber please consider upgrading your subscription for only $2.50 a month with an annual subscription of $30. We will be having lots of these conversations behind the paywall and I want you to be a part of it!

Has this happened before?

From 2017 to 2019, Republicans controlled the presidency and both chambers of Congress during Trump's first term. Democrats held bicameral control from 2009 to 2011 under Obama, and for brief periods under Clinton and Carter. Republicans had full control for parts of George W. Bush's presidency.

Why is this different?

I think this time is quite different because America is more polarized than ever and the Republican platform involves much more of a “burn it the fuck down” mentality than we have ever faced.

In the past, the 60 vote threshold in the Senate curtailed massive legislative change during unified political terms. Prior iterations of the Republican party were actually not all that interested in passing legislation, their goal was to block change.  In contrast, MAGA wants to wholly remake the government. It’s unclear to me how a President Trump who controls the party with an iron fist and does not care for rule of law, will stand by as a Senate Majority leader tells him that the filibuster is preventing his requested changes. 

This is also unprecedented because we are living in an age of massive distrust of the media. In the past the media could serve as a check and balance. I don’t believe that traditional media has that power any longer. 

And the main check on power of the executive has been the courts. In his first term, Trump was able to appoint 3 justices and create a Supreme Court which was bought by Leonard Leo.  And even if they were to rule against Trump - do we have reason to believe he’d care?

I think about this video from JD Vance a lot, in which he says his advice to Trump is “ when the courts stop you, stand before the country like Andrew Jackson did and say The Chief Justice has made his ruling and now let him enforce it.”  

In the last Trump administration, he was restrained in part due to a combination of ineptitude and intentional restraint from his staff. Or in his parlance: ‘disloyalty.’   This time around, fealty to Trump himself (not the constitution, not the people, not democracy) will be prioritized in hiring: 

What will the Trump administration do with this power?

A Republican Congress could pass a national abortion ban (likely called a national minimum standard) or the Life at Conception Act (already has over 100 co-sponsors in the House). Trump could limit abortions through executive power using the Comstock Act. But I think he will probably start with a different route. I think conservatives will sue to overturn FDA approval of mifepristone, and the Trump DOJ won’t fight it.  His FDA (influenced by people like RFK Jr.) could also restrict or get rid of the approval of medications used in most abortions. 

Trump made sure to kill the bi-partisan border bill so that he could use immigration as a political tool during his race. 

Trump has pledged to implement "the largest mass deportation program in history.” He plans to:

• Seal the U.S.-Mexico border on his first day in office

• Complete construction of the border wall

• Use the National Guard and empower domestic police forces for deportations

• Reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" program

• Implement "ideological screening" for immigrants

The Office of Gun Violence prevention, which we worked so hard to establish, will be shut down. The work they’ve done to help survivors and victims will end. Research into gun violence as a public health hazard will be defunded.  

A Republican Congress will have control of the budget, and so even without breaking the filibuster they can control much of the work of the federal government by defunding programs. Will they defund the people at NICS doing the background checks? Currently we have a 3 day default proceed loophole for background checks, which means that if the FBI doesn’t complete a background check after 3 days the purchaser is allowed to buy the gun. The FBI has reported that this “default proceed” provision allows thousands of prohibited purchasers to buy guns every year before their background check is completed.

What will happen to all the investigations into Trump and will he go after people he perceives as enemies?

A Republican-controlled House will likely shift the focus of congressional oversight and investigations. Instead of scrutinizing the Trump administration they will launch thinly veiled publicity stunts that are ‘investigations’ into Democratic officials or policies. They’ll use subpoena power to support the administration's agenda and likely limit or end existing investigations into Trump or his allies

Trump has bragged that he will  fire Jack Smith, the special prosecutor who’s looking into the charges against him for mishandling classified documents and trying to change the outcome of the 2020 election. He’s also threatened to investigate Biden, Harris, and Liz Cheney. 

What has happened in this election actually IS the worst case scenario. We have to take care of ourselves and each other. But we can’t merely wallow. We need to take action and we need to start now. I’m here for your questions and I’ll be keeping you informed every step of the way. I’m opening up a subscriber chat this week to create a community to keep us all accountable and to share ideas. We need one another more than ever.