TALKERS & ANALYSIS: State of the Union
President Biden gave the State of the Union (SOTU) last night, here’s the link to the text of his speech, and here’s the EYP rundown:
How I’m talking about it - talkers from Emily
Summary of the policy issues discussed in the speech
How to respond to what Republican’s are saying
Prognostication station: what I see happening from this
What I hope you’ll post on socials
1. How I’m talking about it - talkers from Emily
Biden has a tough two years ahead of him with a Republican House of Representatives intent on personally attacking him and no interest in actually legislating. A group that has already said they will hold the economy hostage to force Democrats to agree to their demands.
What he needed to do in this speech was convey to America that he has a policy agenda of things he wants to get done to improve folk’s lives AND convey that he would not be steamrolled by the Republican’s aggressive partisan tactics. He accomplished both.
As always he did so with a combination of: empathy for everyday Americans and vibes of reasonableness, articulating his ideas as common sense solutions.
Republicans want to make the debt ceiling fight dominate the news cycle for months. They care more about the process than outcome - months of attacking Democrats for being fiscally irresponsible without really debating the underlying policy issues. Biden lured them into agreeing that medicare and social security are off the table.
This was a well done gotcha moment made for the internet denizens.
This bit of theatre didn’t stoop to Trump’s name-calling but portrayed that Biden wasn’t going to be steamrolled by their aggressive tactics.
Track Record:
Biden didn’t make a list of successes, they were peppered thought the speech - but the first two years of his Presidency were replete with MANY wins. While it’s fun to talk about hyperpartisanship (both by fixating on the MTG’s who act ludicrously AND lamenting how the country is too partisan) the reality is Biden has actually delivered on his campaign promise of bipartisan wins by not engaging in the partisan fray too much.
Things like the Infrastructure bill are SO BIG they are, frankly, hard to talk about, but he focused on some key wins:
$35 cap for insulin for seniors
Investing in green energy sources
Improving access to clean water
500k new charging stations for electric vehicles
Respect for Marriage Act passed
Safer Communities gun bill
Burn pit victims bill for veterans
CHIPS - increasing our ability to make computer chips in America
Electoral Count Act
The Child Tax Credit, while it was in existence, cut childhood poverty in half
And some more ephemeral things like:
Restoring a sense of normalcy to politics after the previous President incited a violent coup to try to steal the election.
Stewarding us through an economically and socially volatile period without derailing us into a depression or worse.
The Economy:
Republican’s pubic messaging on the economy is centered around inciting visceral emotional reactions from Americans: rising prices of goods & the emotional response to debt (because being in debt is something a lot of Americans understand, 63% of America lives paycheck to paycheck.)
Biden combined a discussion of policy wins, policy plans with an emotional underpinning of: empathy and calling out corporate greed
There was a LOT mentioned, and part of democrat’s struggle is that instead of TWO main issues, we have actual plans and want to discuss 20. Here are my takeaways:
Rising prices and stagnant wage growth have been the cost of increased corporate profits.
Investing more in America means more jobs, more manufacturing and more money kept inside our economy.
The free market isn’t fair, government regulation has a role to keep things fair so that the economy can function well.
Democracy
Biden ended the speech by talking about how the US is at an “inflection point.” He wove together Trump’s efforts to steal the election, the war in Ukraine, the attack on Paul Pelosi to argue that we must be optimistic and *active participants* in the fight against extremism and to keep democracy.
He could have made the speech much more focused on an existential threat, a framing that galvanizes Americans. But while he did mention extremists, he did not focus on that.
Decorum in the House:
People want to talk about the outbursts and the lack of civility. And there have been tremendous changes, in 2009 when a Rep yelled “You Lie” to President Obama it was a national scandal nearing the level of Obama’s tan suit.
I think it’s good that MTG is acting like herself, that Mike Lee is pouting because he got caught red handed trying to cancel social security, and that America can see what yelling on social media looks like in real life.
There is incredibly limited *real life* engagement amongst the parties for the public. It’s all staged. Debates on the floor are often scripted or filmed in an empty room. This was not only more engaging but also, we are a country with extremely divergent views on things, if people want progress they need to get used to arguments to get us there.
WHAT I’M NOT TALKING ABOUT: whether Biden should run in 2024.
Talking about Biden’s successes often results in comments about how he shouldn’t run in 2024 because he’s old.
That’s a silencing technique. Biden is the head of the Democratic Party, it’s not just about him and it’s not just about one office. It’s about big policy issues and wins, and it’s something we NEED to talk about if we are going to keep moving issues forward.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders:
I haven’t talked to anyone who was able to get through her response, vibes were low and angry. The pitch she made was: let’s continue with all things MAGA but add in some mama bear energy. She made an argument for a ‘new generation’ which does double duty of attacking Biden and pushing aside Trump.
Fundamentally the argument she makes is that big mean democrat elitists want to control your life and you shouldn’t let them. Appealing to the emo teenager in America’s hearts.
There was no unity agenda here. No when they go low we go high. It was culture wars and fighting words.
2. Summary of the policy issues discussed in the speech
Direct economic benefit
Capping insulin prices at $35
Biden did it for people on Medicare and wants to do it for everyone. RX prices in US are too high. Ven diagram of problems with healthcare and greedy corporations.
Junk fees (Resort, bank, travel fees, etc)
People want price transparency, we don’t want to feel like the deck is stacked against us and companies can include hidden fees. Hotels make $3B a year on resort fees.
The market functions best when it’s transparent, the scam of “free market economists” is the fallacy that all actors will play fair. The current system punishes companies that don’t try to scam their customers with hidden fees, and hurts consumers who end up paying more.
Government regulation, while painted by the right as restriction on free market capitalism, is actually a needed barrier to control bad actors and *allow* the market to function properly. See here for more info from White House.
Balancing the economy
Tax billionaires: billionaire shouldn’t pay lower taxes than a teacher or firefighter
Taxing corporations, we increased minimum tax for big companies to 15% but Biden says that more needs to be done. Tax stock buybacks! (in 2020, 55 of the biggest companies in America made $40 billion in profits and paid zero in federal income taxes)
Bring manufacturing jobs back to America (800k manufacturing jobs have been added since Biden took office, highest growth rate since 1979).
Bolster Unions, and worker protections, like the recent FTC proposal to ban non-compete agreements.
Infrastructure / Climate Change
There was a lot of discussion about infrastructure, from highways to bridges.
A plan to build 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations across the country by tens of thousands of IBEW workers.
Police Reform
Biden called for more police accountability. Tyre Nichol’s parents were present and Biden described in empathetic terms the experience of fear of your child getting murdered by police.
Biden has very limited ability to unilaterally reform police departments, mostly through DOJ enforcement.
He said that we need to provide more support for things like community policy and calling police “good, decent, honorable people.”
Big Tech
Strengthen antitrust enforcement (this is a David Cicilline bill) - because tech monopolies have too much power.
Increase privacy protections especially for children.
Social Policy
Choice: Biden would veto a national abortion ban (an important statement though not a real possibility this term).
Children:
Childcare tax credit
paid leave
Universal Pre-k
Guns: ban assault weapons
Foreign policy:
Other than Ukraine, the speech was nearly entirely about domestic policy issues.
Fentanyl/Immigration:
Biden combined increasing efforts to stop fentanyl deaths with the need for comprehensive immigration reform. He got big jeers from Republicans on this.
Covid:
Biden used is ‘empty seats at the table’ imagery to talk about the tremendous loss we’ve suffered, though sort of glossed over the continuing impact of the pandemic.
3. How to respond to what Republican’s are saying
Citing polls about Biden’s approval rating / he’s too old
His approval rating is at a pretty normal level for a President who is not using war to build support. But moreover - this wasn’t a campaign speech - this was about the State of our Union. We are not a cult of personality, we are a big tent party who shares values and try to actually move forward policy ideas.
This was the most partisan SOTU ever:
Trump gave Rush Limbaugh the Presidential Medal of Freedom during SOTU
Republicans don’t want to cut social security and medicare:
#notallRepublicans lolz.
Utah Senator Mike Lee in a recording “I’m here right now to tell you one thing that you’ve probably have never heard from a politician, it will be my objective to phase out social security. To pull it up by the roots, and get rid of it.”
Other people like Montana Rep Ryan Zinke are trying to spin are trying to have it both ways, change it without changing it: “I think everything should be looked at and reviewed…We want to make sure the social security system is viable and healthy… I’m open to review…because we need to protect social security and we have medicare challenges…we also have this huge looming fiscally irresponsible budget.” CNN on Feb 8
Senator Rick Scott wants all government programs to sunset after 5 years, including Social Security. Knowing Congress’s track recording of getting things done quickly and efficiently, this definitely wouldn’t result in ending social security. (Eye roll).
Senator Ron Johnson told a radio show that Social Security and Medicare should be axed as "mandatory" programs and be subject to "discretionary" spending, meaning Congress would have to renew them yearly or they'd end.
The Republican Study Committee (which is like a policy think tank for House Republicans) proposed incrementally raising the retirement age to collect Social Security.
Trump proposed cuts to Social Security and Medicare every year he was in office.
Trump’s FY21 budget proposal called for a net cut of $480 billion from Medicare and $24 billion from Social Security programs.
Trump’s FY20 budget proposed cutting $575 billion from Medicare and $26 billion from Social Security programs.
Trump’s FY19 budget proposed cutting $554 billion from Medicare and $72.5 billion from SSDI and Supplemental Security Income.
Trump’s FY18 budget proposed a $70 billion cut to SSDI benefits.
4. Prognostication station: what I see happening from this
#Finishthejob is a new slogan, Democrats are already selling it on a mug in ombre.
The major issues I saw signaled by members of the democratic caucus were: police reform and childcare issues.
Biden had a strong focus on his blueprint for blue-collar workers - a nod to places like Pennsylvania and Michigan which are some of the few purple states that will decide the next Presidential election.
The debt limit fight *has* to be nipped. We can’t let Gottheimer and Manchin muddy the waters on messaging here. Anyone who has ever raised a dog or a toddler knows you can’t reward this type of behavior or they will just keep on doing it:
5. What I hope you’ll post on socials:
Memes making fun of MTG and Kyrsten Sinema’s outfits abound, but that really doesn’t move the conversation forward in a meaningful way. Go ahead and post stuff you think is funny, but also something thoughtful!
The Mike Lee video with a commentary. Eg: What these elitists say behind closed doors is more reflective of their views than the spin they put on for the television cameras.
Did Biden talk about a policy issue you really care about? (Eg: Abortion, paid leave, resort fees, assault weapons ban etc.) post a photo from the speech with commentary about how you are excited to see this issue included in the SOTU and you want to see Congress finish the job on the issue.
Sleepy Joe gets LOTS of airtime, but “not sleepy Joe” isn’t fun to talk about so there’s no constant countervailing force. There’s a lot of value to saying - I think he did a good job. I think he was thoughtful, showed an understanding of the reality of a lot of Americans’ lives and he wants to do more than just engage in culture wars - he has an actual policy agenda.
The theme of the speech was “Finish the Job.” What does that mean to you? Biden had a lot of wins and this Congress could chose to spend their time on finding more bipartisan wins rather than producing gotcha culture war moments. Or is it about the promise of another day in the fight - it’s easy to get burnt out on drama but this is about issue that impact real lives: healthcare, clean water, jobs etc. It’s worth settling in for the long term - and we do have leaders that want to be there with us.
Contrast Biden’s comments with what Republicans are choosing to focus on today:
Desantis did a news conference where he continued to push the already-debunked gas stove conspiracy: “They are trying to take away your gas stove,” DeSantis says. “It shows they are coming for any little thing in your life.”
House Republicans are hosting an oversight hearing about Hunter Biden’s laptop, AKA how they want to be able to post a man’s dick pics on Twitter.
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Best,
Emily
You're the best, Emily! Thank you for such thoughtful content.
Thank you!!