Could Trump Really Run Again in 2028?
The answer is more complicated than I'd like.
Last week, Trump’s campaign started selling “Trump 2028” hats. His sons laughed it off as a joke. It wasn’t a joke. It was a shot at the constitutional limits of our democracy and another nudge of the Overton Window.
Trump has repeatedly speculated about a third term and told NBC, “there are methods which you could do it.”
Under any reading of the Constitution rooted in law, a third Trump term is impossible. Full stop. However this is a president who doesn’t adhere to traditional norms or laws. So many of you have been asking me if a third term is possible that I wanted to build out an explainer on the subject.
First, I want to explain why it is not possible under current laws.
Then, I’ll explain how he could, conceivably, get away with it.
Lastly, I will give my analysis of why he is even mentioning this now, so early in his term.
A third term is unconstitutional. Full stop. Where the Constitution draws a hard line is the number of times a person can be elected president. That limit is two. It doesn’t matter if the terms are served consecutively or not. If a person has been elected to the presidency twice, they cannot run for it again.
This rule comes from the 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951. It was introduced after Franklin D. Roosevelt won four presidential elections and served for over 12 years, longer than any president in U.S. history. Roosevelt's extended time in office, especially during the crises of the Great Depression and World War II, prompted lawmakers and the public to reconsider how long any one person should hold executive power.
The text of the 22nd Amendment is clear:
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice…”
Once you’ve been elected twice, you’re out. Trump has now won two presidential elections, first in 2016, and again in 2024. That means he’s hit the constitutional limit. He cannot legally be elected president again in 2028.
It’s worth noting that the two-term limit doesn’t mean a person can serve as president for only eight years, exactly. It’s possible, under certain circumstances, to serve for up to ten years. For example, if a vice president takes over for a president with less than two years left in the term and then gets elected twice afterward, they can serve just under a decade in total. But this doesn’t apply to Trump. He’s been elected to the presidency twice, and that’s the only benchmark that matters here.
Could the rule be changed to allow a third term?
In theory, yes, but in practice, it’s extremely unlikely. Changing the Constitution is one of the hardest things to do in American politics. It requires either a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate, or a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of state legislatures (something that has never happened in U.S. history). After that, the amendment must be ratified by three-fourths of the states,that’s 38 out of 50.
On top of the political and procedural hurdles, there’s also the matter of public opinion. For decades, polls have shown that Americans overwhelmingly support term limits for presidents. There’s little appetite, across the political spectrum, to extend those limits,especially in such a polarized climate. A proposal to repeal the 22nd Amendment would likely be dead on arrival.
But what about the loopholes?