Can Trump Steal This Election?
And exactly how he'd do it ...
“If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat” - Donald Trump in September
Can Trump steal the election? One thing is for sure, if he loses, he’s certainly going to try. The paths to doing it are many, the stress will be high.Your phone will be a never ending source of conspiracies.
I know today is hard and stressful and this might be the last thing you want to think about, but I also truly believe we need to be prepared.
We should expect that tonight at some point Trump will declare victory. If he’s losing he’ll declare fraud. If he’s winning in states with more mail-in-ballots to count, he’ll try to stop the count.
Conservatives will file lawsuits supported by affidavits from people who say they saw something unusual happen. Those claims will eventually be debunked but they will fuel a narrative similar to what happened in 2020.
Here’s exactly what else could happen so you know what to look out for. Democracy is a fragile contract we’ve all made with each other, and Trump and his minions are doing everything in their power to break it
“I think we are looking at a very possible constitutional crisis and one that’s going to make January 6, 2021, look like a dress rehearsal,” Neal Katyal, the Former Acting U.S. Solicitor General said.
Let’s rewind a little.
In 2020 Trump tried to use every tool at his disposal, in acts of obvious desperation, to cling to his seat on his golden throne. But because Biden won with 306 electoral votes, Trump would have had to overturn the results in several states to become President. Four years later, he does not have the power of the Presidency, but he’s had time to plan. And if the election is close to the razor's edge, as many polls indicate it could be (even though I wish we weren’t all relying so heavily on polls), he might be able to try to steal the election in a few ways.
Conservatives have been working to set the stage for the steal for a while. Even if Trump is not successful at claiming the presidency, all this work furthers one of the main objectives of the campaign—destabilizing America. By pulling at the fabric that holds us together, undermining people’s faith in media, government and expertise, it sets the stage for an oligarchical takeover. We love to talk about how Russia is causing chaos to aid its aims, but the enemy is actually within (hey! Maybe Trump’s right about something!).
The Internet conspiracy theories will flood our feed, Trump will call himself the winner and try to stop the count. I do trust the advocacy group’s federal government’s lawyers to fight back on all the MAGA electoral shenanigans. But I worry about how these conspiracies will seep into the American hive mind and further break our thinly held civic bonds. Sensationalism works, creating the specter of impropriety works, and without confidence in democracy it’s very hard to keep it going. As James Madison said in The Federalist Papers, the law is a mere “parchment barrier.” And the parchment can rip.
Here’s the six things they’ve been doing to prepare:
Pre-litigating: 206 voting related lawsuits have already been filed in 2024, in 2020 there were 157. The GOP is involved in 120 of those lawsuits, and a number of other ones come from right-wing groups like America First Legal. Democrats are involved in 28 lawsuits. According to Democracy Docket, of the voting court orders this year there have been, “254 pro-voting victories in the courts, with only 94 losses and 40 rulings with neutral outcomes.” The GOP is trying to do things like prevent the DOJ from monitoring polling locations (they lost), halting the count of ballots postmarked but not received on Tuesday, and in Fulton County, GA (they won), get judicial authority to not certify the election (she lost). (I’d recommend following Marc Elias if you want regular updates on this!)